Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.
To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.
These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:
Newcastle 3.81 v West Ham 0.99 (4-3)
Bournemouth 1.39 v Everton 0.93 (2-1)
Chelsea 4.47 v Burnley 2.10 (2-2)
Forest 0.78 v Palace 0.90 (1-1)
Sheff Utd 1.79 v Fulham 1.10 (3-3)
Tottenham 2.47 v Luton 0.40 (2-1)
Villa 1.28 v Wolves 1.66 (2-0)
Brentford 3.16 Man U 0.99 (1-1)
As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.
Only one of the 16 PL teams playing yesterday had a higher expected goals stat than Newcastle’s 3.81 and that was Chelsea (4.47). Though they were playing against second bottom Burnley who only had ten men for the majority of the match.
However, when it comes to expected goals stat superiority over their opponents, a certain team were way ahead of those in the other games.
Newcastle United (3.81) had a massive 2.82 advantage over West Ham (0.99). Chelsea against ten men Burnley were next highest with a 2.27 expected goals superiority, Brentford a 2.17 superiority over Man U, Spurs a 2.07 difference over Luton.
The truth of yesterday at St James’ Park was that actually Newcastle deserved a far higher winning margin over West Ham, much the better team and far more and better chances, despite everything thrown at NUFC with ever more injuries.
Stats via BBC Sport:
Newcastle 4 West Ham 3 – Saturday 30 March 12.30pm
Goals:
Newcastle United:
Isak 6 pen, 77 pen, Barnes 83, 90 (Gordon red card 90+4)
West Ham:
Antonio 21, Kudus 45+10, Bowen 48
Possession was West Ham 40% (37%) Newcastle 60% (63%)
Total shots were West Ham 9 (6) Newcastle 24 (12)
Shots on target were West Ham 4 (3) Newcastle 9 (4)
Corners were West Ham 4 (2) Newcastle 3 (1)
Referee: Robert Jones
Newcastle team v West Ham:
Dubravka; Livramento (Almiron 56 (Barnes 67)), Lascelles (Krafth 17 (Hall 57)), Schar, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock (Anderson 57); Murphy, Isak, Gordon
Subs:
Karius, Dummett, Ritchie, White
(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Interesting on Newcastle United after West Ham thriller – Read HERE)
(David Moyes embarrasses himself with comments after Newcastle 4 West Ham 3 thriller – Read HERE)
(Eddie Howe absolutely loving what he saw today – That’s the beauty… Read HERE)
(Newcastle 4 West Ham 3 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)
(Newcastle 4 West Ham 3 – Never ever doubt the character of this Newcastle United squad – Read HERE)
(This is the photo that all Newcastle United fans will absolutely love today… See HERE)
Newcastle United confirmed Premier League matches to mid-April 2024:
Tuesday 2 April 2024 – Newcastle v Everton (7.30pm) TNT Sports
Saturday 6 April 2024 – Fulham v Newcastle (3pm)
Saturday 13 April 2024 – Newcastle v Spurs (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Wednesday 24 April 2024 – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (8pm)
Saturday 27 April 2024 – Newcastle v Sheff Utd (3pm)
Newcastle United fixtures, including to be confirmed matches:
Saturday 4 May 2024 – Burnley v Newcastle
Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton
Sunday 19 May 2024 – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)
***Man U v Newcastle waiting for rearranged date
Wednesday 22 May 2024 – Tottenham v Newcastle (at MCG – Melbourne Cricket Ground)
Friday 24 May 2024 – A-League All Stars team v Newcastle (at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne)