The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at Craven Cottage against Fulham.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Fulham v Newcastle game.
“Fulham’s defiance of their woeful defensive metrics continues to frazzle my brain – somehow Marco Silva’s football manages to keep them very stable in mid-table. Since the start of last season they have averaged 1.73 worth of expected goals against per 90, showcasing the level of high quality chances they offer up on a consistent basis.
“Only Luton (1.93), Sheffield United (2.03) and relegated Leeds (1.76) have posted worse figures per 90 in that period.
“Yet, Silva’s team have conceded just 15 goals at home this season – only Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded fewer. It makes little sense.
“I’m a sucker and huge believer in the underlying performance metrics for when it comes to making sensible betting picks, so with a dangerous attack like Newcastle arriving, I’m happy to invest in a pro-Toon angle. The standout is Alexander Isak to score at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
“The striker, in fine fettle, has 10 goals in his last 13 appearances and has netted in his last four Premier League games.
“Of players to have scored at least 20 goals in the Premier League since the start of last season, Isak’s goals per 90 rate is the fourth best of any player at 0.72, while his shot conversion rate of 24.27 per cent is only bettered by Erling Haaland.
“He is now averaging a goal every 106 minutes in the Premier League this season, a record that puts him ahead of Haaland and Mohamed Salah as the deadliest forward.
“We’re dealing with a world-class finisher here in Isak and the odds-against prices for him to score should be snapped up – as should the 10/1 with Sky Bet for a double.
“Score Prediction: Fulham 1 Newcastle 3
“Jones Knows Best Bet: Alexander Isak to score (11/10 with Sky Bet) & Isak to score twice (10/1 with Sky Bet)”
A lot of good stuff in there, as usual, when it comes to what the Sky Sports expert says.
In their last two matches against relegations strugglers Sheffield United and Forest, Fulham have conceded three goals in each, underlining their defensive vulnerability.
Whilst as the Sky Sports man says, Alexander Isak is in great form this season and particularly recently, with five goals in his last four PL matches. Indeed, after scoring a top class goal against Everton, Isak could and maybe should have gone on to score a hat-trick, with other chances coming his way – including one from only seven yards out which a defender stopped on the line with Pickford beaten.
Whilst Newcastle have of course had their own issues at the back, they looked decent on Tuesday night despite so many injuries.
At the other end, as well as Isak, Gordon returns today from suspension and with the likes of Branes, Anderson, Willock, Murphy, Bruno and Longstaff all available, Eddie Howe at last once again having options in midfield and attacking areas, both for starting elevens and positive changes during games.
Newcastle have scored 11 goals in five PL away matches in 2024, including two goals away at Liverpool and Chelsea, plus three away at Villa. Whilst they also scored two at Craven Cottage in that 2-0 FA Cup win in January.
Indeed, a happy hunting ground for Newcastle in recent times, as before that FA Cup match, Newcastle won on their last three PL visits 4-0, 2-0 and 4-1. Whilst Newcastle have won all of their last five matches, home and away against Fulham in all competitions and it is over 10 years since Fulham defeated NUFC in the Premier League at either Craven Cottage or St James’ Park.
I think Eddie Howe will definitely look to high press and attack early on, try to get an early goal (or more…), with Alexander Isak spearheading that threat.
Newcastle United confirmed Premier League matches to mid-April 2024:
Saturday 6 April 2024 – Fulham v Newcastle (3pm)
Saturday 13 April 2024 – Newcastle v Spurs (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Wednesday 24 April 2024 – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (8pm)
Saturday 27 April 2024 – Newcastle v Sheff Utd (3pm)
Saturday 4 May 2024 – Burnley v Newcastle
Newcastle United fixtures, including to be confirmed matches:
Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton
Sunday 19 May 2024 – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)
***Man U v Newcastle waiting for rearranged date
Wednesday 22 May 2024 – Tottenham v Newcastle (at MCG – Melbourne Cricket Ground)
Friday 24 May 2024 – A-League All Stars team v Newcastle (at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne)