The last fortnight has seen an assortment of performances from Newcastle United.
First, we had the topsy turvy home game against West Ham, 1-3 down despite being the better side. A cluster of avoidable goals appearing to send us towards a home loss and the probable end of our chase for European football. A spirited comeback led to a memorable 4-3 win in magnificent circumstances.
A few days later we hosted Everton and were again the better side but didn’t take our chances and gifted them a draw due to a ridiculous penalty concession.
The following weekend we were completely outplayed in the first half in West London but improved in the second and sneaked our third victory against Fulham this season.
Then yesterday, in what should have been our toughest challenge of the last two weeks, we absolutely blew 4th placed (at the time) Tottenham away. We barely had the ball but boy did we use it well when we did. Our first team player availability is back to the very worst levels we’ve seen it and yet our makeshift side ran riot against their supposedly superior opponents.
What a fortnight it has been for Newcastle United.
So much credit and respect to Eddie Howe, his coaching team, and the players. It would have been nice to have the full twelve points but if anyone had offered me ten before kick against West Ham, I would have gladly accepted them.
We’ve shown we can win in a multitude of circumstances. We’ve become a streaky team and we’re hitting a winning one at just the right time.
The race for sixth is on and I personally think there is only one team that has a chance of stopping us now. That is the team that use our moniker despite there being absolutely nothing United about them.
I can’t see either of Brighton or Wolves catching us. They are six and seven points behind us respectively and I don’t believe they’ll win all their games or that we’ll drop that many points.
Chelsea have two games in hand on us and could go level if they win both but have a significantly worse goal difference. Their last eight games are home ones against Everton, Tottenham, West Ham and Bournemouth and away matches against Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest and Brighton. They’ll be lucky to win more than half of those, in my opinion, so I can’t see them catching us.
West Ham have a horrible schedule, playing two of the title contenders, a sixth placed chaser and a desperate relegation battler. Of their last six games, today was one of their most winnable but they succumbed to a home defeat against Fulham. They’ve now played a game more than us and are two points behind with a significantly worse goal difference. Their last five games are home ones against Liverpool and Luton and away ties with Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Man City.
That leaves the Salford sulkers. When our game against them was postponed, due to their cup commitments, I desperately hoped we’d play them as late in the season as possible. It would give us a chance to get as many players back as possible (although we could still lose more in that time if our luck this season is anything to go by) and hopefully play ourselves into a bit of form.
We can put a massive tick beside the form part of that. It may be that we wish we had them next weekend now considering our recent run of results, especially when compared to theirs. However, I still think it’s working out better this way. They’ve been slotted in as our penultimate game of the season so it’s going to be a gargantuan encounter when it comes around.
Man U are level on points with us but with an embarrassing -1 goal difference compared to our +17. If we finish level come the end of the season it’s pretty much guaranteed that we’ll still be superior on this front.
Their last six games are the kindest of our fellow Europe hunters. Sheffield United (H), Burnley (H) Palace (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (H), Brighton (A). They actually play four of the same teams as we do, as well as playing us. The only change is to swap Arsenal for Brentford. They have four home games and two away, whereas we’re reversed with just two more appearances at St James’ Park this season.
They are truly woeful though.
I’ve watched Man U many times this season and they have regularly been second best in their encounters. They deserved nothing from their game against Bournemouth yesterday. The home team had 22 shots, were unlucky to concede a penalty and to not get one of their own. Man Yoo scored from their only two shots on target. Against Liverpool, they didn’t manage a single shot in the entire first half. They should have been on their way to another 7-0 loss in that fixture, but Liverpool missed a host of chances, and the home team stirred a little in the second half and somehow managed a draw.
The mighty Manchester United haven’t actually won a Premier League game since the 9th of March.
The fact that they have a negative goal difference speaks volumes. Only they and West Ham have that ignominious stat to their names of the top half teams. I didn’t think they deserved to finish above us last season and I feel they are even less worthy this time around. Supposedly the table doesn’t lie but I’d suggest it’s told a couple of whoppers when it comes to the Red Devils these past two seasons.
Despite all this, I do think they’ll get 7-9 points from their next three games. I don’t think they’ll play well. I doubt they’ll be the better team in some/all of those matches, but I do expect them to scrape and scrap their way to a decent haul. I’ll be shocked if they beat Arsenal. It will be Arsenal’s penultimate game in the title chase. Arsenal lost today so hopefully they don’t completely capitulate in the rest of the season as they play some of our rivals in these last few games. I personally have that one down as a draw, but I certainly can’t foresee a home victory. That means Man Utd’s game against us could be the sixth place decider.
In recent encounters there has only been one United.
These last two seasons we have completely played them off the (St James’) Park in our home fixtures. We deserved to win both by more than the two and one goal respective margins. They’ve only managed to beat (or score against us) once in the last five meetings. Unfortunately, that happened to be the Carabao Cup Final.
Man United haven’t beaten us in the league since September 2021 and haven’t scored against us in the league since December 2021. That’s right, it’ll be nearly two and a half years since Man United celebrated a Premier League goal against us when we meet in May.
It will be tough to win all the rest of our fixtures but if we can at least match the point tally of Man United, then I have every faith that we can take at least a point from Old Trafford. If we do that, I have no doubts that we’ll beat Brentford on the last day. If we can be victorious at Old Trafford and seal sixth with a game to spare, that would be absolutely phenomenal. Dan Ashworth will be tearing out his geraniums.
I’m crossing my fingers whilst touching wood here, but if we avoid any more significant injuries, then we should have at least four or five players back for this one. The likes of Pope, Joelinton and Trippier the most vital ones that we hope to be involved. Having the depth that Willock, Wilson and Almiron would offer would be a huge plus too.
I have every faith that we will be travelling the continent again next season. Which position we finish in is completely in our hands now.
You can follow the author on Twitter @billymerlin