Tottenham got lucky on Saturday.
Newcastle United won 4-0 but it could and should have been so much worse for the boys from North London.
After Werner cleared the Gallowgate End early on, Tottenham never really created anything much of note, despite dominating the possession.
That dominant possession mainly involving the goalkeeper wondering what on earth should I do, as United’s high press stopped them easily playing out, then when they were forced to eventually try and play it long when pressed, the Newcastle midfielders and defenders simply too powerful and wanting it more.
A great victory for Newcastle but still in reality a glass ceiling of no higher than sixth place possible.
Or is it…?
This is how the Premier League table looks on Monday (15 April 2024) morning:
As you can see, with only six matches remaining for each of the two clubs, Tottenham 10 points higher, though Newcastle have a one goal better goal difference.
Tottenham have had an interesting season, everything fell right for them as they picked up 26 points in their opening 10 matches and were top of the table. Incredible luck I thought at the time as they looked decent but nothing special to me, that luck summed up by the shocking (but hilarious!) error by match officials that gifted them the win over Liverpool at the end of September.
The next seven months though after that victory over Liverpool, Tottenham have won Premier League matches against the following Premier League clubs:
Luton (x2), Forest (x2), Everton, Brentford, Palace (x2), Bournemouth, Fulham, Brighton, Newcastle, Villa
So 13 PL wins since that fluked September 2023 one over Liverpool BUT 10 of these 13 wins have been against clubs who are now bottom nine in the table as we near the end of the season.
Tottenham have been flat track bullies, pretty much entirely relying on wins against the weakest teams.
The three exceptions in these near seven months were a win over a very inconsistent Brighton who are only just clinging on to top half now, Tottenham caught Newcastle at our weakest possible time as Nick Pope was added to the injury list in early December, then a freak 4-0 at Villa where everything went wrong for the home side and the opposite for Tottenham.
To sum up these past near seven months, Tottenham have been nothing special, which maybe makes it a bit less of a surprise as to why Newcastle battered them on Saturday. Spurs also won only one of three domestic cup matches this season and that was against second bottom of the Premier League, Burnley.
So with 10 points between the two clubs and only 18 points each to play for, could Newcastle United really catch Tottenham and finish fifth?
Well Newcastle United showed on Saturday what they are capable of even without 13 first team squad players not available as starters, plus an 11 days gap between games, with the prospect of some really big players potentially back very soon.
The way the fixtures have worked out as well, Newcastle with what looks the easiest of all on paper in terms of remaining matches, Tottenham the exact opposite.
The remaining Premier League fixtures for both Tottenham and Newcastle United:
Wednesday 24 April – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (8pm)
Saturday 27 April – Newcastle v Sheff Utd (3pm)
Sunday 28 April – Tottenham v Arsenal (2pm)
Thursday 2 May – Chelsea v Tottenham (7.30pm)
Saturday 4 May – Burnley v Newcastle (3pm)
Sunday 5 May – Liverpool v Tottenham (4.30pm)
Saturday 11 May – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)
Saturday 11 May – Tottenham v Burnley (3pm)
Tuesday 14 May – Tottenham v Man City (8pm)
Wednesday 15 May – Man U v Newcastle (8pm)
Sunday 19 May – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)
Sunday 19 May – Sheff Utd v Tottenham (4pm)
Conclusions
Of course, for Newcastle United to stand any chance of pulling this off, we need to keep our side of the bargain, take advantage of what looks a tempting remaining set of games.
If Newcastle can win their next two games against Palace and Sheffield United, the gap will close to only four points, suddenly things not looking so clear cut.
Like Newcastle, Tottenham also have Burnley and Sheff Utd to play in their remaining matches, BUT look at the other four!
Tottenham face the top three clubs and also massive rivals Chelsea away, Pochettino’s side hammered Spurs 4-1 on their own turf earlier this season.
I fancy Man City to win all their remaining Premier League matches and comfortably win the league now, whilst very likely that both Liverpool and Arsenal will be out of Europe before they each face Tottenham, which will only help ensure they throw everything at Spurs and beat them. Then we need Chelsea to do the business as well, which is also very possible / likely despite their own up and down form.
When I was reading the comments from Spurs fans after their hammering at SJP, quite clearly a lot of their fanbase have not got carried away with things, they recognise the luck they have carried and having managed to edge a lot of matches against the weakest teams. So many of their fans predicting a dismal ending to their season.
What it boils down to is this.
If Newcastle United can get 16 points from a possible 18, then I think we will end up fifth.
I think Tottenham will lose against Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea, so even if they win against both Burnley and Sheff Utd that would only give them 66 points. Which is what Newcastle would have if picking up 16 points, NUFC with already a better goal difference than Tottenham, with that only growing if results end up as I suggest.
Wins over Palace and Sheff Utd, would then mean Newcastle needing three wins and a draw from Brighton at home and Burnley, Man U and Brentford away, to get 16 points. Obviously if I’m greedy, six wins would mean we could then have say Tottenham getting a point in two of those other matches against the top three and Chelsea, but NUFC still finishing above them.
As Palace showed at Anfield yesterday, no match can be taken for granted.
However, with the attacking power shown against Tottenham and the improved defending of recent times despite the numerous missing personnel, anything is possible for Newcastle United in this run-in.
Stats via BBC Sport:
Newcastle 4 Tottenham 0 – Saturday 13 April 12.30pm
Goals:
Newcastle United:
Isak 30, 51, Gordon 32, Schar 87
Tottenham:
(Half-time stats in brackets)
Possession was Tottenham 73% (66%) Newcastle 27% (34%)
Total shots were Tottenham 11 (5) Newcastle 18 (10)
Shots on target were Tottenham 2 (1) Newcastle 5 (2)
Corners were Tottenham 3 (1) Newcastle 16 (10)
Referee: Tim Robinson
Newcastle team v Tottenham:
Dubravka, J Murphy (Livramento 78), Krafth, Schar (Dummett 90+3), Burn, Longstaff, Bruno (White 90+3), Anderson (Ritchie 89), Gordon, Barnes (Hall 88), Isak
Unused subs:
Karius, Gillespie, A Murphy, Parkinson
(Match Report – Tottenham Hotspur, it’s happening again – Read HERE)
(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Very interesting on Newcastle after 4-0 Spurs hammering – Read HERE)
(Ange Postecoglou deserves credit – Very honest after Newcastle United outclass Tottenham – Read HERE)
(Newcastle 4 Tottenham 0 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)
(Can we play you every week(***) – Newcastle 4 Tottenham 0 – Read HERE)